What the Hell Happened in Britain this week? (Parliamentary decisions, Irish Backstop and more)

What.

Just.

Happened.

Did they seriously reject the second deal as well?

....yes they did.

Frankly, I don't even know at this point. That was Tuesday and I was done with drama for the week.

But things keep going and going.

Parliament voted again yesterday (Wednesday), This time in order to decide whether they want to "choose" to go for a no-deal Brexit and save some face, OR keep striving for a new deal.

The second option comes with a 'rider' of sorts. Now that the British MPs have vetoed Theresa May's second proposal for a Brexit deal, they are in position to make another important decision.

...whether or not to ask the EU for an extension.

Keep in mind this decision lies in the hands of the EU; the EU votes to decide whether the departure of the UK from the EU can be postponed beyond the current agreed upon date (the 29th of March)

So long story short: the Parliament and the government of the United Kingdom has spent a lot of time this week making decisions...(wait for it)....about other decisions.

Well, I guess that's what they call politics. 

And that could also be seen as a summary of the British socio-political scenario in recent times. But I degress.

The point is, we are not done with Brexit. We have reached a point where we can be like "ok. that was bad, but now its over'.

Global media are still hanging on at the edge of their seats, eager to ridicule the diaspora of gaffs and guffaws happening in the UK parliament of late. 

But where does that leave us now?

Well, as I write this article, the Parliament is debating on whether they should ask for the said extension on the leave from the UK. 

If you ask me, they might as well just say "no deal" and get it done with. Hit rock bottom, so that you can finally bounce back up, mother always said. 

However, it is important to qualify my above statement with the fact: there are some potentially horrible consequences if May doesn't have a deal in place to take care of issues like the Irish border trouble, affectionately referred to by analysts as the "Irish Backstop". A NY Times Article addressing the Topic. So things are going to look bleak without a deal. Albeit possibly only for the time being.

And now the moment you've all been waiting for (heavy sarcasm) --> 

My prediction for tonight: Parliament will agree for May to ask the EU for an extension on Brexit.

Feel free to share your own predictions, thoughts, comments or even unqualified opinions below :)

I shall be back again this week, with my thoughts on how it all played out.

For now, if you would like some more substantial information on the UK's scenario (if you have bsiness interests in the UK or something), I would suggest some more technical aspects of Brtish immigration and how they affect foreigners in the SmartMove Immigration blog. Their latest -> Entrepreneurial Options in UK post Brexit

A Mumbai Street Incident

#Mumbai

#Always

(Prose poetry attempt by a not-at-all poetic me begins now :) ) ->

It's been a while since I have spent some time alone. Managed to catch my mind at peace for a few minutes while sitting in a rickshaw the other day. Going through the streets of this beautiful city, my home, and home to countless others, I felt a rush... of what exactly I do not know. It wasn't exactly adrenaline. Not entirely.

While my mind has always been of the pacy kind, my rare moments of clarity occur when I stare at the streets of Mumbai. 

These moments of clarity hit me like a few moments of paradoxes. The good kind.

Peaceful yet powerful.

Loud yet overwhelmingly secretive

Somewhere along my years spent in Mumbai, my personality picked up traits of the city's personality.

Now, like I realized while sitting in that rickshaw journey in a cool Mumbai evening, I know that Mumbai is not just me, as I had been knaively thinking.

Mumbai is everyone.

That is paradox; not quite adrenaline, not quite love, just a humble sense of awe.

A awe at the all encompassing ever growing, and ever so dangerous....

...Mumbai

(I wrote this to my blog collaborating partner Sid and he put a video together with some clips he had of Mumbai. Being a Mumbai lover himself, I think Sid's done justice to the mysterious, enigmatic aura of Mumbai... Video below)

Guest Content: Poetry on Rhythm aka Rap

As always, I am eager to share and promote people I know who produce some cool piece of art, or opinion or idea or anything at all.

Today, let's explore the power of poetry and rhythm, aka RAP :)

Thanks Siddhant for your contribution! It's a beautifully created video, and an amazing verse!

For more from Siddhant: https://smartmove2uk.com/positive-impact-of-brexit-on-uk-businesses/

For anyone who wants to present their thoughts on my blog, feel free to contact me.

For more content explorations of every kind, subscribe to my blog by leaving your email :D

BE THE CHANGE YOU WANT

A socio-political contest  from Siddhant Menon, blog assister come friend, ! ->

Hey All!

Imagine you have a magic microphone, in which if you speak any instructions, then all of society will automatically follow your advice, whatever it be. What would YOU speak into this microphone?

Email your answers to siddhant@smartmove2uk.com! The cleverest (articulate, coherent, and doabale) answer will receive a prize from Smart Move Immigration: Smart Assistance for Smart Ambitions.

 #BeSmart

The Brexit Circus: Final Cut (Almost...)

As promised, here I am with the last, more analytical part of my hypotheses for Brexit outcomes. Again my usual disclaimer that if you are completely clueless,  you can start off with parts 1 and 2 of this series from my home page.

Now without any further preambles, let's hop right to it.

1) Need for talented labour in the UK

Britain will need a steady inflow of talented labour, and India fits the bill perfectly due to its English speaking population.

2) Global Market Fluctuations

The fall in prices of commodities like crude will help India save a lot on its import 'bill'. Every one dollar drop in crude prices leads to roughly 1 billion dollars of savings in India's oil import bill. This in return reduces the national trade and current account deficits.

3) Drop in Commodity Prices

Brexit would weaken global growth and lead to a meaningful decline in commodity prices. This is only going to enhance both the relative and absolute appeal of India. Lower commodity prices will help the macro fundamentals; be it fiscal deficit or current account deficit of inflation. This will only give the government more levers to pump up the investment cycle.

4) Global trading partners with the UK may feel the brunt of Brexit 

Remittance to the UK from outside in terms of the Pound will fetch lesser returns compared to the past. Export dominated countries may be affected, regardless of whether or not they directly export to the UK or not. On the other hand countries which do have the UK as a major trading partner will feel a much harsher effect.


5) Impact on global powerhouses

The United States will bear the major brunt of Brexit, being the UK's biggest trading partner. Brexit would likely cause any Dollar value rise to play out. This may cause other currencies to decline in value.

A direct impact on Asian economies is unlikely in the long run; this is because exports to the UK are less than 2% of the GDP for most economies.

However, businesses in some major economies may be hit. In India and Japan, companies which have set up operations in the UK with the intention of gaining access to markets will be affected adversely.

Now...

Is India ready to handle Brexit?

The finance ministry has stated that India has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to handle any impact. However, I have my own theories. If you're interested then I shall upload a video talking about the same within the next 10 days. Subscribe to stay updated on the same!

The Brexit Circus: What you need to know here in India Part 2 (of 3)

As promised last week, I am going to be keeping my readers up to date with a thorough analysis of how we are going to be impacted by the Britain’s ‘divorce’ with the EU across the world and in India.

Today I am going to dwell a little deeper into the impact we should be feeling in India in the near future. In this article, I am going to give myself the liberty to explain a little more of the technical details of the diplomatic crisis that is going on within the British government with regards to their Brexit negotiations (If you have no clue what I’m talking about, I would suggest reading the first part of this article first).

Let me just clarify that I am intending to write this article in the format of a rant, regarding all the things that I have had to deal with and learn about while working in a company that might have major impacts depending on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. If you are looking for more clarity, feel free to get in touch with me. I am happy to discuss and debate; the more I learn the more empowered I feel.

So here goes nothing….

Fall in the Value of the Pound Sterling:

Due to the fall in the value of the British Pound, Indian exports to the UK will suffer. A cheaper Rupee will make Indian exports, including IT and ITeS, more competitive. Indian import companies operating from within the UK may also report losses. Also note that India exports more to the UK than imports from the UK.

On a positive note, there are many who think that a weakening British currency might be good news. India being more of an importing nation than an exporting nation, the overall impact of a weakening British currency may be positive for India, given that the US Dollar does not appreciate too much against the Rupee at the same time. With a lower Pound value, Indian companies may be able to acquire many hi-tech assets.

Investor Optimism in India

As investors look around the world for havens in these turbulent times, India stands out both in terms of stability and in terms of growth.

Trade

Brexit might give a boost to trade ties between India and the UK; Britain will finally be free to discuss a bilateral trade pact with India, which it couldn’t as part of the European Union.

Indian migration to UK options are up

Due to the fall in pound sterling, sophisticated organizations like T1 Digital in the UK assisting in work immigration routes are keen on helping many Indian professionals gain career opportunities through the Exceptional Talent Visa that might have been a lot more difficult during the EU days. Brexit might indeed open up a lot of lucrative life growth options for career-oriented Indians who are lacking the right opportunities here in India. 

Tourism boost for the UK

More Indian (and global) tourists can afford to visit Britain in coming days as the currency value has fallen.

UK Education

British universities are still, and probably always will, be considered as some of the best in the world. And now thanks to the low Pound value, many Indian students can afford to study in the UK without a hard pinch in their pockets.

There, I am out of breath now :P. So if you haven’t caught on, I am trying to make each of these Brexit articles one step more analytical than the previous. Meaning the last article of this series which I will be publishing next week will be slightly more analytical. If you're curious, I am going to be talking about how the pound fluctuations will be affecting the prices of various commodities, and hence the impact on global markets and economies.

I would say this is going to be a bigger tragedy for the UK than Price William losing his hair (Forgive me)

Stay tuned until next week for my conclusions on the Brexit Circus!

In the mean time, please leave your comments and opinions below, along with your email addresses if you would like to be notified about regular updates! 

The Brexit Circus

The Brexit Circus: What you need to know here in India Part 1

No better way to encompass everything that’s been going on with regards to the UK and its split from the EU than the word circus. There’s people juggling, there are people roaring, there are people crying and pretending to smile, and there are people smiling and pretending to cry.

Before I get on with my rant, I might as well add that since there’s so much of garbage and fear mongering happening by media outlets across the world, the best option for eager followers of Brexit (for whatever reasons ranging from plans to move to the UK, or if you’re like me and your work deals with British finance on an intimate level) then the best option is to keep track of a combination of 4 types of sources; news channels, opinion articles, and immigration discussion boards 

Yes, that is indeed the only way for you to have a more or less accurate picture of what’s going on in the UK these days and how good or bad things are really looking. And speaking of opinion articles, here’s mine J

What I intend to do is provide a list of all the consequences that this process of negotiation between the UK and the EU are leading up to; in the UK and all the nations connected. Since I am just getting the hang of blogging, I am going to use some blogger friends’ advice and provide the information in a list format as supposedly you readers find that more convenient. So here goes!

Why should you care about Brexit here in India? (10 today, 10 next week)

If any of the below listed consequences affect you in any way, then you know that you should care about Brexit and keep up with this blog for regular updates! If not, well you have some good general knowledge to read for today J

(Disclaimer: Keep in mind that a lot of these points regarding India are regarding the short term. IF things pan out in certain ways, then India should come off in a strong position in the long run after Brexit.) 

1)      There might be a rise in the US dollar value thanks to the fund outflows from the UK

2)      The Indian Ruppee may drop in value bcause of the the dual effect of fund outflows and rise in Dollar value.

3)      This in turn may lead to an increase in Petrol and Diesel Prices.

4)      Prices of gold, electronic goods, and other things might also increase.

5)      There might be a short term tumble in the Sensex and Nifty.

6)      Falling value of the GBP (Great Britain Pound) could render several existing contracts with UK based firms as loss making.

7)      Foreign funds might also move out of India if the above mentioned fluctuations creates a perception of risk towards investment in India.

8)      India’s Forex (currently a record 363 Billion Dollars) may diminish, particularly if the currency     is stored in Euros or Pounds (which accounts for about 20% of the total Forex)

9)      There would be a short term negative impact on the $108 Billion IT industry of India.

10)   All the Indian companies listed in the London Stock Exchange and those which have their headquarters in London, might suffer.

I have made an extremely long, detailed list of all the possible consequences of Brexit for Indian corporations as well as individual investors. However, I would like to put those out in my article next Sunday. This is due to the fact that the coming week might be very exciting in terms of the course Theresa May’s government takes with regards to Brexit, and also how it would lead to global confidence I the UK and the EU.

As always a special shout out to my friends and colleagues: A very belated Happy Birthday to my dear friends Divya and Sebin! May all your wishes come true.

And lastly (my blog wouldn’t be complete if I didn’t say this), a big big congratulations to the Indian Cricket Team for DOMINATING in Australia!!

In the meantime, if you would like to have a brief summary of the Brexit happenings in 2019, have a look at this summary video put together by Siddhant Menon: 

Stay tuned till next Sunday for part 2 of the consequence of Brexit to Indian investors, corporations and individuals. Leave your email below and I shall keep you updated every time there is something new I think about, and hence write about!